Treasure Bank pay attention to China’s foreign exchange reserve report after non-agricultural

Saxo Bank: non-agricultural employment concerns after the report points China foreign exchange reserves: a weak dollar, but in the non-agricultural announced before the action can be eased; risk preference is slightly stable, but the rebound in the yen caused the Nikkei frustrated; attention released over the weekend China latest foreign exchange reserves data; while the dollar extended yesterday’s decline, but released in non-agricultural the employment report before the action can slow down. U.S. stock trading risk appetite also rebounded slightly, but in the early morning of the city, the yen again strong, the Japanese stock market did not benefit from it. Next week is Chinese lunar new year, stock markets will be closed for a week, pay attention to the latest released over the weekend China foreign exchange reserves report, if foreign exchange reserves fell significantly, the market is bound to cause panic. Similarly, if the amplitude is not the foreign exchange reserves are expected to decline, the market is expected to gradually dispersed gathering clouds and rolling mists. In any case, in the medium and long term, the revaluation of China’s RMB will be closely linked with the market nerve. The current weakness of the dollar is good for China, because the RMB index can weaken in the absence of a significant rise in the dollar. However, after the lunar new year, the RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate more and more. At the same time, the U.S. non farm employment in January is an extremely critical risk event, the market generally expected employment growth of about 190 thousand, but considering the current performance of the dollar, the unexpected rise of the results may not be able to reverse the negative sentiment of the market against the dollar. Next week, Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen will give a half yearly testimony in Congress for two days. Yellen is facing difficult problem, she must be on the current market situation the Fed’s position compared with last December’s interest rate policy, which is not easy. Chart: the euro exchange rate exceeded 1.100050 pounds — a week figure become the focus of the market, since the Bank of England meeting and report the statement published quarterly since the dollar began approaching key resistance at 0.7760, but in the short term may not be the two emperor to abdicate. The next key psychological target is 0.8000 or even 0.8100, which is the 61.8% retracement of the wave in early 2013. G10 main monetary performance: U.S. dollar: the dollar’s recent decline somewhat overdone, if the economic data released gratifying performance, the dollar may be substantially consolidated. If the US employment report is worse than expected, it may depress market sentiment, drag on the dollar and high-risk assets. Euro: risk sentiment and the dollar are both weak, the euro rebounded immediately, the central bank meeting yesterday held a substantial boost euro pound. If the euro dollar breaks the previous high of 1.1500, then the resistance lies in the 1.1250 range. Yen: $118 to 121.50 yen from faltering, then collapsed, the key support at 116, if solved, the exchange rate may be further decline, the premise is risk aversion continues to ferment. Sterling: the BOE meeting is in line with the market expectations of the doves, especially the recent weakening of the pound sterling dollar. The central bank may intend to keep the pound under pressure in the current environment, especially against the euro

盛宝银行:非农就业之后关注中国外汇储备报告   要点:   美元持续疲软,不过在非农公布前下行动能有所缓解;   风险偏好略有走稳,不过日元反弹导致日经指数受挫;   关注周末公布的中国最新外汇储备数据;   尽管美元延续昨日的跌势,但是在非农就业报告出炉前,下行动能略有减缓。美股交易时段风险偏好也略有反弹,不过到了亚市早盘,日元重新走强,日本股市并未从中获利。下周是中国农历新年,股市将休市一周,关注周末公布的中国最新外汇储备报告,如果外汇储备明显下滑,势必引起市场的恐慌情绪,同理,如果外汇储备下滑的幅度未及预期,市场的愁云惨雾有望逐步散去。   无论如何,从中期乃至长期来看,中国人民币的重新估值都会紧扣市场神经。当前美元疲软对中国而言是利好,因为人民币指数就可以在美元 人民币没有大幅提升的情况下走软。不过在农历新年结束后,预计人民币汇率的波动会越来越大。   与此同时,美国1月份非农就业是极其关键的风险事件,市场普遍预计就业人数大约增长19万,但是考虑到美元目前的表现,意外上涨的结果也未必能扭转市场对美元的负面情绪。下周美联储主席耶伦会连续两天在国会作半年度证词陈述。耶伦正面对棘手的问题,她必须就当前的市场形势表明美联储的立场——与去年12月的加息决策相比,这一点也不轻松。   图表:欧元 英镑——周图   汇价突破1.1000 50成为市场焦点,自英央行会议声明与季度报告公布以来,汇价就开始逼近关键阻力0.7760,不过短期内可能不会二次逼宫。下一个关键心理目标是0.8000甚至0.8100,后者是2013年年初那波跌浪的61.8%回撤。   G10主要货币表现:   美元:美元近期跌势有些过头了,如果日内公布的经济数据表现喜人,美元可能进行大幅盘整。如果美国就业报告逊于预期,可能打压市场情绪,拖累美元与高风险资产。   欧元:风险情绪与美元双双疲软,欧元立马反弹,昨日召开的英央行会议大幅提振欧元 英镑。欧元 美元如果突破原有高点1.1500区间,接下来的阻力在于1.1250区间。   日元:美元 日元从118蹒跚而至121.50,随后又一路暴跌,当前关键支撑在116.00,如果告破,汇价可能进一步大幅下滑,前提是风险厌恶继续发酵。   英镑:英央行会议符合市场的鸽派预期,特别是英镑 美元近期大幅走软,央行可能有意让英镑在当前环境下继续承压——尤其是兑欧元,欧元 英镑逼近关键阻力0.7760   瑞郎:美元 瑞郎重返平价下方,多头大失所望,汇价可能探至0.9800   澳元:亚市早盘公布的零售销售疲软,澳元 美元突破关键转折区间,除非下周初公布的中国外汇储备疲软,否则汇价有望继续上行。当前澳元出现认知失调的难题,局部看涨,但长线看跌。   加元:美元 加元最终避免崩盘,汇价重返1.3700上方,如果该支撑失守,接下来的关键支撑指向1.3550 1.3500区间。只要汇价继续留在1.4000下方,就会面临进一步盘整的风险。   纽元:纽元过分强劲,但是近期市场行情并未支撑空头,纽储行对通胀预期相对鹰派,令人困惑,纽元 美元开始测试200日均线。   盛宝银行   2016-2-5 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: